September 15, 2015

Investment Insight, "Will the U.S. Stock Market Crash? Actually, the Key Question is What is the Probability?"

Abstract

This issue of Investment Insight explains why it can be more fruitful for investors to assess the probability of a market crash than to ask simply whether one will occur. The paper also discusses how analysis of pricing trends in the stock-index option market can provide a clearer picture of the likelihood of a market crash.