Third Quarter Update to 2015 Investment Outlook

Abstract

This is the third quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s 2015 Investment Outlook, which summarized the firm’s outlook for the world’s economies and investment markets.

The update, “Down, Set, Hut One, Don’t Hike,” is based on an assessment of the global environment and data after the third quarter (Q3) of 2015.

As noted in the introduction:

Unlike the situation with the Canadian economy and the Bank of Canada, where “centralized” interest rates may face more downward pressure, our friends at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) seem to be calling an “audible” each time they meet to discuss whether to raise (hike) short-term interest rates. … The Fed can hike whenever it chooses while carefully reading the many players on the macroeconomic field. The Bank of Canada will need to watch the Fed closely, as any move will also affect Canadian prosperity and the Canadian dollar.

The Q3 update’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section describes key macroeconomic factors driving markets in both the developed and emerging markets, and the updated Asset Class Signals section comments on the direction of specific investments within the following three broad asset classes:

  • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
  • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, long bonds and municipal bonds
  • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland