Second Quarter Update to 2015 Investment Outlook

Abstract

This is the second quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s 2015 Investment Outlook, which summarized the firm’s outlook for the world’s economies and investment markets. This update, “Greeks Seeking Gifts and a Bear in the China Shop — Should Canadians Worry?,” is based on an assessment of the global environment and data after the second quarter (Q2) of 2015.

As noted in the Q2 update’s introduction, the Canadian economy continues to grow — sort of:

It inches along, but far below expectations. The current environment in China may not help, given that a substantial amount of export (commodity) demand comes from that region. Expectations remain that the Canadian economy may still worsen, despite efforts by the Bank of Canada to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates and by weakening the Canadian dollar.

Following this update’s introduction are two sections that use a table format to present the firm’s updated views as of July 2015. Shaded table cells indicate changes or additional information since the publication of the Q1 update to the 2015 Investment Outlook: The updated Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section describes key macroeconomic factors driving markets in both developed (Canada, the U.S., the eurozone, Japan and the U.K.) and emerging markets (China, Brazil, Russia, India and others); the updated Asset Class Signals section comments on the direction of specific investments within the following three broad asset classes:

  • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
  • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, and long bonds
  • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland

There will be one additional quarterly update to the 2015 Investment Outlook, which will be published in late fall.

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