Investment Outlook, "2015 Outlook: Cheap Oil: A Mixed Picture for Canadian and Global Economies"

Abstract

This is the second issue of Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s detailed annual publication summarizing the firm’s outlook on the Canadian economy, the global macroeconomic environment and specific investment opportunities for the next 12-18 months.

This year’s issue discusses the impact that the sudden and dramatic decline in oil prices is expected to have on global growth prospects. As noted in the Outlook for Canada section that begins this issue:

This decline will hurt many Canadian governments fiscally, as strong and persistent growth in the oil industry was a major contributor to tax revenue. Given that Canada has an economy that is still largely resource-based, the recent change in the global dynamics will have other repercussions that will include job losses, resource industry consolidation, pressure on the previously buoyant housing market, lower interest rates and a weaker dollar.

The following section features commentary on the U.S. and global economies. The two sections after that use a table format to present the firm’s views, which range from very negative to very positive, and comments on those views. The Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section discusses key macroeconomic factors in the most important countries and regions driving markets — both developed (Canada, the U.S., the eurozone, Japan and the U.K.) and emerging (China, Brazil, Russia, India and others). The final section, Asset Class Signals, comments on the direction of specific investments within three broad asset classes: 

  • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
  • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, and long bonds
  • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland

This Investment Outlook will be followed by quarterly updates throughout 2015.

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