April 2014

Investment Outlook, "2014 Outlook: Never Never Land"

Abstract

This is Segal Rogerscasey Canada's detailed annual publication summarizing the firm's position on the broad investment classes noted below:

  • Equities  Investment opportunities covered in this section include U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market (EM) equities.
  • Interest Rates and Fixed Income  Segments explored include EM debt, high-yield bonds and bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, alternative fixed income, long bonds and municipal bonds.
  • Alternative Investments  The alternative investments analyzed include hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure and natural resources, such as timber, farmland and energy.
  • Commodities  This section notes Segal Rogerscasey Canada's outlook for agriculture and livestock, industrial metals, precious metals and energy.

As noted in the Overview section that begins Investment Outlook, "2014 Outlook: Never Never Land," the discussion in most investment committee rooms and asset manager hallways is around just how much farther into the heavens the equity markets can progress. For the report's authors, that question calls to mind Peter Pan's directions to Never Land: go to "the second star to the right and straight on till morning" - an analogy that helps frame their discussion of overarching investment themes for 2014.

The discussion of each investment class is preceded by text that notes Segal Rogerscasey Canada's perspective on that investment. A subsequent section called Summary of Views shows all of the firm's conclusions in one large table.  

A section called "Outlook for Canada" discusses the Bank of Canada's recent policy actions and how they affect Canada's post-commodity-boom economy.

Another section, Summary of the Global Environment, features tables that list the factors Segal Rogerscasey Canada believes will have a positive and negative influence on the U.S., non-U.S. developed and developing economies.

This publication also includes the firm's outlook for investors in Australia, as well as a discussion of four strategies for downside-risk protection: structured products, managed futures, hedge funds and risk parity.

One appendix summarizes last year's investment experience and another provides noteworthy economic graphs and tables of data.

This Investment Outlook will be followed by quarterly updates throughout 2014: Q1 Update, Q2 Update and Q3 Update

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