Investment Publications Archives

August 2017

  • Q2 2017 Outlook

    This update to the 2017 Investment Outlook gives our revised views on the macroeconomic environment and specific opportunities in equity, fixed-income and alternative investments to help asset owners shape their investment strategy for the near term.

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May 2017

  • Q1 2017 Outlook

    This update to the 2017 Investment Outlook gives our revised views on the macroeconomic environment and specific opportunities in equity, fixed-income and alternative investments to help asset owners shape their investment strategy for the near term.

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April 2017

  • 2016 Outlook: A Scorecard

    Segal Rogerscasey Canada reviews how it fared in its forecasts for the global capital markets in 2016.

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February 2017

  • 2017 Outlook: Investors, Brace for “Arrival”

    What does 2017 have in store for investors? The uncertainty in the global political environment has increased volatility as markets react to the constant stream of new developments on the world stage.

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November 2016

  • Third Quarter Update to 2016 Investment Outlook

    This third quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s 2016 Investment Outlook gives our revised views on the macroeconomic environment and specific opportunities in equity, fixed-income and alternative investments to help asset owners shape their investment strategy for the near term.

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  • Can a Presidential Winner Be a Loser for the Stock Market?

    This Investment Brief tackles the question: To what degree can electing a new U.S. president influence stock market behavior?

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October 2016

  • The Treasury Rally of 2016 — A Look Ahead

    This Investment Insight examines three possible scenarios for how the U.S. Treasury market could perform over the next 28 months and how investors can prepare.

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July 2016

  • Second Quarter Update to 2016 Investment Outlook

    This second quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada's 2016 Investment Outlook gives our revised views on the macroeconomic environment and specific opportunities in equity, fixed-income and alternative investments to help asset owners shape their investment strategy for the near term.

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June 2016

  • Surprise! We Have a “Brexit”

    This Investment Brief examines three possible scenarios for how Britain’s departure, or “Brexit,” from the European Union could play out, and how investors can respond in the near term.

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  • “Brexit”: Only a Symptom of a Profound Transformation?

    This Investment Insight discusses the implications for investors of Britain’s potential exit from the European Union and what it signals about today’s global investment landscape. We also put the June 2016 “Brexit” debate in a broader context by seeking to answer two questions:

    • Why was the topic under such consideration when most investment and financial professionals already viewed a potential Brexit as having negative consequences for Britain?
    • And will these types of uncertainty-creating events continue into the future?

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  • Protect Your Portfolio: 10 Tips for Investing in a Volatile Environment

    Markets around the globe have fluctuated dramatically over the past nine months, with no end in sight. This Investment Brief offers 10 tips on how investors can manage the anticipated volatility.

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May 2016

  • First Quarter Update to 2016 Investment Outlook

    This first quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada's 2016 Investment Outlook summarizes our revised outlook for the macroeconomic environment and specific classes of equity, fixed-income and alternative investments. This update aims to help asset owners shape their investment strategy for the near term.  

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April 2016

  • 2015 Outlook: A Scorecard

    Segal Rogerscasey Canada's annual scorecard assesses how forecasts made in the 2015 Investment Outlook compare to actual investment experience for equities, fixed income and alternative investments.

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March 2016

  • Investment Insight, "Active versus Passive – Version 5.0: Thoughts on How You Can Get on Base"

    This Investment Insight revisits the ongoing debate about whether active investment management can achieve the goal of outperforming the passive, or indexing, alternative.

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  • Investment Brief, “Responsible Investing: A Reintroduction”

    This Investment Brief discusses environmental, social and governance investing (ESG), and explains how it differs from other forms of responsible investing.

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February 2016

  • Investment Outlook, “Standing (or Is that Sitting?) Out in a Crowd”

    This is the fourth issue of Segal Rogerscasey Canada's detailed annual publication summarizing the firm’s outlook on the macroeconomic environment and specific investment opportunities for the next 12–18 months.

    Uncertainty about the economic future has given rise to an unusually broad consensus of opinion on the likely direction of markets — and investors may want to “wait with the crowd” until there is greater clarity. Key macroeconomic factors at play in developed economies (the U.S., the Eurozone, Japan and the U.K.) and emerging markets (China, Brazil, Russia, India and others) are discussed. The publication also includes comments on specific opportunities within equities, fixed income and alternative investments.

    This Investment Outlook will be followed by quarterly updates throughout 2016.

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January 2016

  • Investment Insight, "China: The Riddle Kingdom"

    This Investment Insight seeks to explore the validity of associating the fact that China’s economy is currently growing at the slowest pace in a quarter century with the recent decline in share prices and reflect on how this change in the historic pattern might impact future market actions.

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  • Investment Insight, "After QE: Economic and Financial-Market Effects"

    As central banks wind down their historic quantitative easing (QE) policies, the global economy and financial markets are entering uncharted territory. This Investment Insight considers whether QE was a success in the U.S. It also discusses how investors can prepare for the end of QE globally.

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December 2015

  • Investment Insight, "Are We There Yet? Higher Interest Rates and the Implications for Bond Investors"

    With the imminent tightening of monetary policy, investors have expressed concern about whether bonds continue to have a role in their portfolio given the unattractive outlook for returns. This issue of Investment Insight sheds light on whether the concern has merit and considers aspects beyond the expected returns on bonds that may support their continued ownership.

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November 2015

  • Third Quarter Update to 2015 Investment Outlook

    This is the third quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s 2015 Investment Outlook, which summarized the firm’s outlook for the world’s economies and investment markets.

    The update, “Down, Set, Hut One, Don’t Hike,” is based on an assessment of the global environment and data after the third quarter (Q3) of 2015.

    As noted in the introduction:

    Unlike the situation with the Canadian economy and the Bank of Canada, where “centralized” interest rates may face more downward pressure, our friends at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) seem to be calling an “audible” each time they meet to discuss whether to raise (hike) short-term interest rates. … The Fed can hike whenever it chooses while carefully reading the many players on the macroeconomic field. The Bank of Canada will need to watch the Fed closely, as any move will also affect Canadian prosperity and the Canadian dollar.

    The Q3 update’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section describes key macroeconomic factors driving markets in both the developed and emerging markets, and the updated Asset Class Signals section comments on the direction of specific investments within the following three broad asset classes:

    • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
    • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, long bonds and municipal bonds
    • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland

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October 2015

  • Investment Brief, "Investment Jargon: Just What Does That Mean?"

    This issue of Investment Brief explains some of the most frequently used jargon in the investment business.

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September 2015

  • Investment Insight, "Will the U.S. Stock Market Crash? Actually, the Key Question is What is the Probability?"

    This issue of Investment Insight explains why it can be more fruitful for investors to assess the probability of a market crash than to ask simply whether one will occur. The paper also discusses how analysis of pricing trends in the stock-index option market can provide a clearer picture of the likelihood of a market crash.

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August 2015

  • Second Quarter Update to 2015 Investment Outlook

    This is the second quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s 2015 Investment Outlook, which summarized the firm’s outlook for the world’s economies and investment markets. This update, “Greeks Seeking Gifts and a Bear in the China Shop — Should Canadians Worry?,” is based on an assessment of the global environment and data after the second quarter (Q2) of 2015.

    As noted in the Q2 update’s introduction, the Canadian economy continues to grow — sort of:

    It inches along, but far below expectations. The current environment in China may not help, given that a substantial amount of export (commodity) demand comes from that region. Expectations remain that the Canadian economy may still worsen, despite efforts by the Bank of Canada to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates and by weakening the Canadian dollar.

    Following this update’s introduction are two sections that use a table format to present the firm’s updated views as of July 2015. Shaded table cells indicate changes or additional information since the publication of the Q1 update to the 2015 Investment Outlook: The updated Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section describes key macroeconomic factors driving markets in both developed (Canada, the U.S., the eurozone, Japan and the U.K.) and emerging markets (China, Brazil, Russia, India and others); the updated Asset Class Signals section comments on the direction of specific investments within the following three broad asset classes:

    • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
    • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, and long bonds
    • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland

    There will be one additional quarterly update to the 2015 Investment Outlook, which will be published in late fall.

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July 2015

  • Investment Brief, “‘Grexit’ to Eden?”

    This issue of Investment Brief considers the near-term impacts of a potential Greek exit —or “Grexit” — from the eurozone and whether that outcome would ultimately leave Greece and the rest of Europe better or worse off.

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June 2015

  • Investment Focus, "Genius Beta: Why Settle for Just 'Smart' Beta?"

    This issue of Investment Focus uses data analysis to review “Smart” Beta investment strategies in detail, examining their academic origins and recent popularity, describing some of the more common forms today, and considering their potential benefits and drawbacks for investors. For a two-page discussion of key points made in this Investment Focus, see the June 2015 Investment Brief, “Does ‘Smart’ Beta Make Good Sense?

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  • Investment Brief, "Does 'Smart' Beta Make Good Sense?"

    This issue of Investment Brief discusses “Smart” Beta investment strategies, the popular forms today, and their pros and cons for investors. For a more detailed discussion of “Smart” Beta that includes analysis of data, see the June 2015 Investment Focus, “Genius Beta: Why Settle for Just ‘Smart’ Beta?

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May 2015

  • First Quarter Update to 2015 Investment Outlook

    This is the first quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s 2015 Investment Outlook, which summarized the firm’s outlook for the world’s economies and investment markets. This update, “I’m a Fed Watcher, I’m a Fed Watcher…,” is based on an assessment of the global environment and data after the first quarter (Q1) of 2015.

    As noted in the Q1 update’s introduction:

    Over 25 percent of 2015 is gone, and it feels as though we don’t know any more than we did three months ago in terms of direction for the economic environment and for a host of important drivers of capital market returns. … The slow-growth world and uncertainty are making for a mostly boring period without discernable trends.

    Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s advice in such an environment: Stay the course — and, in the meantime, join the legions of folks passing the time by watching the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed): “With the financial press interviewing and interpreting and parsing every word and phrase, we find that one can keep pretty busy waiting for the next set of minutes or carefully leaked sentence or Senate hearing.”

    Following this update’s introduction are two sections that use a table format to present the firm’s revised views as of April 2015, with shaded cells indicating changes or additional information since the 2015 Investment Outlook’s publication in February: The updated Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section describes key macroeconomic factors driving markets in both the developed world (Canada, the U.S., the eurozone, Japan and the U.K.) and emerging economies (China, Brazil, Russia, India and others); the revised Asset Class Signals section comments on the direction of specific investments within the following three broad asset classes:

    • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
    • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, and long bonds
    • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland

    There will be additional quarterly updates to the 2015 Investment Outlook throughout the year.

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March 2015

  • Investment Focus, "Crude Oil's Low Price — Q&A on the Causes, Consequences and Implications for Investors"

    The dramatic drop in the price of crude oil has dominated headlines for the past several months. Even if one does not watch the news regularly, this decline was noticeable at the pump, as the related price of gasoline has plumbed lows not seen since the financial crisis.

    This issue of Investment Focus examines some of the reasons given for the decline in crude prices and considers whether the decline stems from oversupply, diminishing demand or both - or other factors. The issue also examines how the U.S. dollar's value relative to other currencies may affect oil prices; the possible effect of lower oil prices on the U.S. shale industry; and the asset-allocation and asset-class implications of lower crude prices for investors. The issue concludes with a discussion of possible supply-and-demand scenarios for oil and the potential impacts of those situations on crude prices and the global economy. An appendix at the end of the issue provides a historical overview of crude prices.

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  • 2014 Outlook: A Scorecard

    Now that 2014 investment returns are in the books for most asset classes, Segal Rogerscasey Canada has prepared a scorecard to assess how predictions made in the firm's 2014 Investment Outlook compare to actual investment experience. The scorecard examines results for the following investment categories in three broad asset classes:

    • Equities  This includes U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities.
    • Fixed Income  This section discusses U.S. core and non-U.S. developed fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans and long bonds.
    • Alternative Investments  Private equity, master limited partnerships, commodities, real estate and hedge funds are covered.

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February 2015

  • Investment Outlook, "2015 Outlook: Cheap Oil: A Mixed Picture for Canadian and Global Economies"

    This is the second issue of Segal Rogerscasey Canada’s detailed annual publication summarizing the firm’s outlook on the Canadian economy, the global macroeconomic environment and specific investment opportunities for the next 12-18 months.

    This year’s issue discusses the impact that the sudden and dramatic decline in oil prices is expected to have on global growth prospects. As noted in the Outlook for Canada section that begins this issue:

    This decline will hurt many Canadian governments fiscally, as strong and persistent growth in the oil industry was a major contributor to tax revenue. Given that Canada has an economy that is still largely resource-based, the recent change in the global dynamics will have other repercussions that will include job losses, resource industry consolidation, pressure on the previously buoyant housing market, lower interest rates and a weaker dollar.

    The following section features commentary on the U.S. and global economies. The two sections after that use a table format to present the firm’s views, which range from very negative to very positive, and comments on those views. The Global Macroeconomic Outlook Signals section discusses key macroeconomic factors in the most important countries and regions driving markets — both developed (Canada, the U.S., the eurozone, Japan and the U.K.) and emerging (China, Brazil, Russia, India and others). The final section, Asset Class Signals, comments on the direction of specific investments within three broad asset classes: 

    • Equities  U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market equities
    • Fixed Income  U.S. core and non-U.S. core fixed income, emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, structured and middle market credit, and long bonds
    • Alternatives  Hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodities, energy, timber and farmland

    This Investment Outlook will be followed by quarterly updates throughout 2015.

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  • Investment Insight, "Q&A about the Low Price of Crude Oil"

    This issue of Investment Insight explores the possible reasons behind the sudden and dramatic decline in the price of crude oil that began capturing headlines in late 2014. The issue addresses the asset allocation and asset class implications of this decline for investors. It also discusses possible supply-and-demand scenarios for oil and the potential impacts of those situations on crude prices and the global economy.

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December 2014

  • Investment Brief, "Alternative Mutual Funds: A Viable Liquid Substitute for Hedge Funds?"

    Alternative mutual funds have proliferated in recent years, providing broad access to investment strategies once available only to high-net-worth investors and institutions. These more-liquid vehicles attempt to provide portfolio benefits similar to those of hedge funds - but in the U.S. must do so within the constraints of federal mutual fund regulations. This issue of Investment Brief compares alternative mutual funds to the hedge fund strategies they emulate. It also notes some of the key results of Segal Rogerscasey's in-depth analysis of both universes based on U.S. data.

    Download the full Investment Brief as a PDF from the link at the bottom of this page.

    For a more detailed discussion of alternative mutual funds, see Segal Rogerscasey Canada's December 2014 Investment Focus, "Liquid Alternatives - Alternative Mutual Fund Primer."

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  • Investment Focus, "Liquid Alternatives — Alternative Mutual Fund Primer"

    Alternative mutual funds have proliferated in recent years, providing broad access to investment strategies once available only to high-net-worth investors and institutions. These more-liquid vehicles attempt to provide portfolio benefits similar to those of hedge funds - but in the U.S. must do so within the constraints of federal mutual fund regulations.

    This issue of Investment Focus reviews alternative mutual funds and, using U.S. data, provides an in-depth analysis of their historical performance compared to hedge funds. The issue also gives an overview of how the hedge fund and alternative mutual fund universes have evolved, and examines their key differences relating to investor qualifications, liquidity, leverage, fees and tax requirements. The issue concludes with a discussion of the benefits and potential limitations of alternative mutual funds for both individual and institutional investors.

    Download the full Investment Focus as a PDF from the link at the bottom of this page.

    For a two-page discussion of key points made in the Investment Focus, see Segal Rogerscasey Canada's December 2014 Investment Brief, "Alternative Mutual Funds: A Viable Liquid Substitute for Hedge Funds?"

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October 2014

  • Third Quarter Update to 2014 Investment Outlook

    This is the latest update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada's 2014 Investment Outlook, which described the firm's position on four broad investment classes: equities, interest rates and fixed income, alternative investments and commodities.

    This update is based on an assessment of the economic environment and data after the third quarter (Q3) of 2014. It includes a revised table listing developments in the U.S., non-U.S. developed and developing economies as well as additional influences that Segal Rogerscasey Canada believes are positive and negative for investors. It also updates the Summary of Views table of the 2014 Investment Outlook, indicating which of the firm's views have changed since the second-quarter update.

    The Q3 update, "Steady as She Goes," imagines the world's economies as ships at sea:

    In the U.S., the Captain, in this case Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, continues to tell us the best routes to continue on this post-recession journey to arrive at the chosen destination - economic harmony - include modest growth, moderate interest rates, favorable markets and just-enough inflation. It is hard to disagree.

    The update also notes that while the U.S. waters remain fairly calm, sailing conditions are uncertain from a global perspective.

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  • Investment Insight, "Is the Price Right in Asset Management?"

    This issue of Investment Insight examines whether higher asset-management fees correspond with higher investment returns. It considers the logic behind arguments both for and against the belief that higher fees tend to result in higher returns. It then tests this idea using advanced portfolio analysis of U.S. equity mutual fund performance over the 10-year period through 2013. The study looks at nine "Style Boxes" representing large-, mid- and small-cap funds in each of three styles:

    • Value
    • Blend
    • Growth

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September 2014

  • Investment Insight, "Disparity? Risk Parity vs. the 60/40 Portfolio"

    This issue of Investment Insight reviews the evolution and purpose of risk-parity portfolios. It examines their shortcomings and potential value to investors, applying both data analysis and financial theory to assess risk parity's viability as an investment strategy. The issue also questions whether it is appropriate for risk-parity managers to compare their approach to the traditional portfolio of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, as they often do.

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  • Investment Insight, "Model Portfolios: Balancing Choice and Structure to Achieve Investment Goals"

    This issue of Investment Insight examines the various model portfolios available and discusses their advantages and potential limitations. It also details Segal Rogerscasey Canada's approach to guiding financial advisors and investors through the selection process, which involves decisions in three key areas: exposure, variability and implementation.

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August 2014

  • Investment Insight, "Defining Risk for Investors"

    This issue of Investment Insight considers the behavioral aspects of risk, focusing on four common biases that affect investors' ability to optimally manage assets, particularly in times of stress of crisis. It also discusses how the investment industry's tools for measuring and reporting risk, such as the classic "risk/return scatter gram" in performance analytics reports, may in fact not measure what an investor views as risk. The issue concludes with some observations, lessons and suggestions about how to better understand risk and its influence in the investment decision-making process.

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July 2014

  • Second Quarter Update to 2014 Investment Outlook

    This is the latest update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada's 2014 Investment Outlook, which described the firm's position on four broad investment classes: equities, interest rates and fixed income, alternative investments and commodities.

    This update is based on an assessment of the economic environment and data after the second quarter (Q2) of 2014. It includes a revised table listing developments in the U.S., non-U.S. developed and developing economies as well as additional influences that Segal Rogerscasey Canada believes are positive and negative for investors. It also updates the Summary of Views table from the 2014 Investment Outlook, indicating which of the firm's views have changed.

    The Q2 update, "1-800-POTHOLE," uses the analogy of potholes that are left by a harsh winter to discuss the continuing economic challenges faced by investors following the 2008 global financial crisis:

    Now, over five years on, the vehicles are rolling again, but continue to break through the smooth asphalt, creating bumps and holes that take their toll on drivers and passengers. The central bankers and government policymakers dutifully place their orange barrels and attempt to keep ahead of the number of potholes, but there is a concern that there may not be enough patching material or that another winter will come sooner than expected.

    There will be quarterly updates to the 2014 Investment Outlook throughout 2014.

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  • Investment Insight, "Moving at the Velocity of Money: Getting Up to Speed on Inflation and the Post-Crisis Economy"

    This issue of Investment Insight applies the concept of the velocity of money to examine the U.S. Federal Reserve's response to the 2008 global financial crisis. The analysis revolves around the "Equation of Exchange," a formula that focuses on how much money is flowing through the economy and how quickly (or at what "velocity"), in relation to price levels and the nation's total economic output.

    Applying this formula, Segal Rogerscasey examines why money velocity has continued to decline amid muted rates of inflation and gross domestic product growth, even as the Fed has provided trillions of stimulus dollars to the economy. The publication also discusses some of the possible consequences if the Fed withdraws stimulus too slowly or too quickly - and how investors might want to prepare for such outcomes.

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June 2014

  • Investment Focus, "Introduction to the Frontier Markets and the Opportunity They Present for Investors"

    Like the emerging markets, which came into focus around the late 1980s, a new subset of rapidly developing countries known as frontier markets is garnering increased attention from the institutional investment community. Frontier markets offer an opportunity to invest in growth characteristics and economic environments very different from those of more developed countries. But frontier economies also can be politically, culturally and economically unstable, sometimes resulting in volatile returns.

    This issue of Investment Focus discusses frontier markets in some detail, including key traits that distinguish them from emerging and developed markets. It also examines the various methods used by index providers to categorize frontier markets, noting how the different classifications have caused material performance variances between indices. The article explores the advantages of investing in frontier markets, such as lower correlations, less expensive valuations and higher yields than more developed markets. It also describes the downsides, including sometimes-volatile returns, foreign ownership constraints, illiquidity and high fees.

    The publication concludes with a discussion of Segal Rogerscasey Canada's belief that the downside of frontier markets investing may outweigh the upside potential for many investors. The firm recommends that the majority of investors allow emerging markets managers to invest opportunistically in frontier markets, an approach that allows for some exposure to frontier markets while mitigating the risks.

    Download the full Investment Focus as a PDF from the link at the bottom of this page.

    For a two-page discussion of key points made in the Investment Focus, see Segal Rogerscasey Canada's June 2014 Investment Brief, "Exploring New Terrain: The Promise and Pitfalls of Frontier Markets."

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  • Investment Brief, "Exploring New Terrain: The Promise and Pitfalls of Frontier Markets"

    From Argentina to Zambia, rapidly developing countries known as frontier markets are garnering increased attention from the institutional investment community. Frontier markets have attracted investors seeking high returns and an asset class with relatively low correlations to more developed markets. This issue of Investment Brief discusses some of the characteristics of frontier markets, as well as whether and how investors should consider an allocation to the asset class, which requires being mindful of economic, social and political risks.

    Download the full Investment Brief as a PDF from the link at the bottom of this page.

    For a more detailed discussion of frontier markets, see Segal Rogerscasey Canada's June 2014 Investment Focus, "Introduction to the Frontier Markets and the Opportunity They Present for Investors."

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  • Investment Insight, "Implications of Geopolitical Instability for Investors: Spotlight on the Middle East"

    Any major geopolitical crisis is likely to have a negative effect on investment performance, but certain market sectors have performed well in troubled times. This issue of Investment Insight reviews financial data related to past geopolitical events in the Middle East to examine the impact on global markets. It also outlines some of the possible steps investors can take to insulate portfolios from geopolitical instability and discusses investment opportunities that can arise during a crisis.

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May 2014

  • First Quarter Update to 2014 Investment Outlook

    This is the first quarterly update to Segal Rogerscasey Canada's 2014 Investment Outlook, "Never Never Land," which described the firm's position on four broad investment classes: equities, interest rates and fixed income, alternative investments and commodities.

    This update is based on an assessment of the economic environment and data after the first quarter of 2014. It includes an updated table listing developments in the U.S., non-U.S. developed and developing economies as well as additional influences that Segal Rogerscasey Canada believes are positive and negative for investors. It also updates the Summary of Views table from the 2014 Investment Outlook, indicating which of the firm's views have changed.

    The update, "Spring Forever," discusses the slower, uneven pace of economic growth since the Global Financial Crisis, likening the recovery to the severe winter and slow-blooming spring seen in portions of the northern U.S. and any part of Canada this year:

    Much like the four largest economic blocks (U.S., eurozone, Japan and China), whenever there is a sign that growth appears strong and sustainable, another cold front dips down to remind us of the fragility still felt from the now-five-years-past Global Financial Crisis. This pattern has become so consistent that many have proclaimed slower growth to be the new normal globally, perhaps with good reason.

    There will be quarterly updates to the 2014 Investment Outlook throughout 2014.

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April 2014

  • Investment Outlook, "2014 Outlook: Never Never Land"

    This is Segal Rogerscasey Canada's detailed annual publication summarizing the firm's position on the broad investment classes noted below:

    • Equities  Investment opportunities covered in this section include U.S. equities, non-U.S. developed equities and emerging market (EM) equities.
    • Interest Rates and Fixed Income  Segments explored include EM debt, high-yield bonds and bank loans, Treasury inflation-protected securities, alternative fixed income, long bonds and municipal bonds.
    • Alternative Investments  The alternative investments analyzed include hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure and natural resources, such as timber, farmland and energy.
    • Commodities  This section notes Segal Rogerscasey Canada's outlook for agriculture and livestock, industrial metals, precious metals and energy.

    As noted in the Overview section that begins Investment Outlook, "2014 Outlook: Never Never Land," the discussion in most investment committee rooms and asset manager hallways is around just how much farther into the heavens the equity markets can progress. For the report's authors, that question calls to mind Peter Pan's directions to Never Land: go to "the second star to the right and straight on till morning" - an analogy that helps frame their discussion of overarching investment themes for 2014.

    The discussion of each investment class is preceded by text that notes Segal Rogerscasey Canada's perspective on that investment. A subsequent section called Summary of Views shows all of the firm's conclusions in one large table.  

    A section called "Outlook for Canada" discusses the Bank of Canada's recent policy actions and how they affect Canada's post-commodity-boom economy.

    Another section, Summary of the Global Environment, features tables that list the factors Segal Rogerscasey Canada believes will have a positive and negative influence on the U.S., non-U.S. developed and developing economies.

    This publication also includes the firm's outlook for investors in Australia, as well as a discussion of four strategies for downside-risk protection: structured products, managed futures, hedge funds and risk parity.

    One appendix summarizes last year's investment experience and another provides noteworthy economic graphs and tables of data.

    This Investment Outlook will be followed by quarterly updates throughout 2014: Q1 Update, Q2 Update and Q3 Update

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February 2014

  • Investment Insight, "Growth vs. Value – Only a Part of the Story in Large Capitalization Equity Management"

    This issue of Investment Insight presents results of an analysis of Growth and Value investment managers for a 10-year period. That analysis underscores the importance of considering Growth and Value managers' sub-styles. Growth sub-styles include Aggressive Growth, Traditional Growth and Growth at a Reasonable Price. Value sub-styles include Relative Value, Traditional Value and Deep Value.

    The analysis shows that while Growth and Value are dominant influences, sub-styles also play a significant role in determining an investor's outcome.

    Additionally, the analysis also contradicts the following myths:

    • Active managers tend to underperform in roaring bull markets.
    • Growth and Value are flip sides of the coin.
    • Greater risk (defined by larger standard deviation) begets higher returns.

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January 2014

  • Investment Insight, "Past Imperfect: Why Using Past Performance as the Primary Indicator of Future Performance Is a Flawed Strategy"

    This issue of Investment Insight uses data over a five-year period to show why using investment managers' past performance as the primary indicator of their future performance is a flawed strategy. By the end of the five-year period, only 11 percent of the top-quartile managers managed to stay in the top quartile. Less than 20 percent were able to stay in the top half.

    Segal Rogerscasey Canada offers strategies for selecting successful managers who can consistently beat the benchmarks. The issue identifies five desirable factors.

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August 2013

  • Investment Insight, "The Case for Global Equities"

    Equities remain an important component in investor portfolios. An increasing number of investors have recognized that the healthiest equity portfolios are well-diversified not only by investment style and market capitalization, but also by geography. However, most Canadian investors still exhibit a "home-country bias" : a tendency to favour investments in domestic companies and securities.

    In a new publication, Investment Insight, Segal Rogerscasey Canada explains why that bias creates a long-term disadvantage in an investment portfolio and makes the case that global equities are a way to avoid that disadvantage.

    In Segal Rogerscasey Canada's experience, implementing a global equity structure need not be overly disruptive. It is not necessary to replace all Canadian and non-Canadian equity managers within a portfolio because a number of money managers have begun to expand their offerings to include global equities. In some cases, expanding investment guidelines might be a simple solution. In other situations, it might make sense to maintain Canadian and non-Canadian managers and look to add global mandates selectively as opportunities arise.

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